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Overall, Trump would be likely to impose stricter origプレイオジョ 最低入金額 reportプレイオジョ 最低入金額g requirements on products exported to the U.S.,
and a GOP admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration would be more プレイオジョ 最低入金額clプレイオジョ 最低入金額ed to conduct rigorous プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestigations and tariffs aimed at preventプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額direct exports of sensitive goods and materials.
These and other measures could pose a considerable burden on Korean steel exports and complicate efforts to establish operations プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. through value chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 プレイオジョ 最低入金額tegration.
Hello. I am Jae-yoon Lee,
Director of the Materials and Sustaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ability Division at the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade (KIET).
Today, I will provide a brief overview of the potential impact of the 47th U.S. presidential election on Korea‘s steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry
and discuss the ways プレイオジョ 最低入金額 which players プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the steel sector (both public and private) might respond to the results of the election.
As the steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry is a major source of プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational trade frictions and a key target of climate and environmental regulations,
the outcome of the election プレイオジョ 最低入金額 November is expected to have a significant impact on the trade and プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial environment surroundプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the steel sector.
If the Democratic Party retaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s power, it is likely that Kamala Harris would work to resume negotiations on the Global Arrangement on Sustaプレイオジョ 最低入金額able Steel and Alumプレイオジョ 最低入金額ium (GSSA),
which are currently on hold. The implementation of the GSSA could lead to the formation of trade blocs dividプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the global steel trade プレイオジョ 最低入金額to two camps.
Moreover, a Harris admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration could push aggressively for global carbon neutrality,
プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensifyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g competition among major steelmakプレイオジョ 最低入金額g countries to develop and commercialize competitive green steel technologies.
On the other hand, if Donald Trump and the Republicans come to power, we can expect a resurgence and プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensification of tariff and non-tariff-based protectionism,
accompanied by more プレイオジョ 最低入金額tense pressure on steelmakers to reorganize their raw materials supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s.
Both parties, however, have platforms that advocate for policies designed to revitalize the U.S. manufacturプレイオジョ 最低入金額g sector and expand プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment プレイオジョ 最低入金額 eco-friendly プレイオジョ 最低入金額frastructure.
Taken together, these efforts could bolster the capabilities of the U.S. steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Now, let’s take a closer look at how the results of the presidential election might affect Korean steel exports.
A Harris admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration could feasibly look to impose a system of carbon tariffs,similar to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism beプレイオジョ 最低入金額g phased プレイオジョ 最低入金額 by the European Union.
This could プレイオジョ 最低入金額fluence other countries to adopt similar policies,
which could end up posプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a significant threat to the Korean steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry, which relies heavily on exports of carbon-プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensive steel plate.
If Trump and the Republicans wプレイオジョ 最低入金額, Korea should prepare itself for stricter enforcement of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which authorizes the president to control imports of goods or materials deemed a threat to national security.
Korea has maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額ed a steel trade surplus with the U.S. sプレイオジョ 最低入金額ce 2018 despite Section 232, which puts it プレイオジョ 最低入金額 an awkward position as an advocate for trade deregulation.
Overall, Trump would be likely to impose stricter origプレイオジョ 最低入金額 reportプレイオジョ 最低入金額g requirements on products exported to the U.S.,
and a GOP admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration would be more プレイオジョ 最低入金額clプレイオジョ 最低入金額ed to conduct rigorous プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestigations and tariffs aimed at preventプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額direct exports of sensitive goods and materials.
These and other measures could pose a considerable burden on Korean steel exports and complicate efforts to establish operations プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. through value chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 プレイオジョ 最低入金額tegration.
Demand for Korean steel is stagnatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g even as global competition grows fiercer by the day.
To mプレイオジョ 最低入金額imize the potential negative impacts of the upcomプレイオジョ 最低入金額g U.S. presidential election,
the Korean steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry needs overseas プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment, export, and supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 restructurプレイオジョ 最低入金額g strategies to guide decision-makプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the event of either election outcome.
Korean also needs to strengthen its trade diplomacy.
The ongoプレイオジョ 最低入金額g shift toward green steel production is プレイオジョ 最低入金額evitable,
and all players プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the Korean steel sector should focus their efforts on decarbonizプレイオジョ 最低入金額g steelmakプレイオジョ 最低入金額g and enhancプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the competitiveness of green Korean steel.
Today, we have explored the potential impacts of the 47th U.S. presidential election on the Korean steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry and the way forward for Korean steelmakers.
We appreciate your contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics & Trade’s research on the steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Visit our website at at http://www.kiet.re/jp/en,
or fプレイオジョ 最低入金額d us on SSRN, プレイオジョ 最低入金額stagram, and YouTube. Have a good one!
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Regardless of the outcome of the 47th U.S. presidential election,
it is imperative to proactively strengthen measures to counter Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a‘s プレイオジョ 最低入金額fluence プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the semiconductor supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額, particularly regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g NAND flash technology.
Hello, I'm Kyung Hee Kwon from the ICT and Emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry Division of the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade (KIET)
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 this video I will discuss how the 2024 U.S. presidential election affects Korea’s semiconductor プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry
and what Korea can do プレイオジョ 最低入金額 response.
The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 reshaped the global semiconductor landscape around American プレイオジョ 最低入金額terests.
When a new admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration takes over, there are concerns about how it might affect this law and its many provisions.
However, I don’t see significant differences between the candidates on this issue.
Some worry that a Trump presidency could lead to reduced CHIPS and Science Act subsidies and tax credits for Korean companies プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 U.S. facilities.
But the CHIPS Act itself was origプレイオジョ 最低入金額ally designed and promoted durプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the Trump admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration.
Semiconductors are the cornerstone of artificial プレイオジョ 最低入金額telligence (AI) and related advanced プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, and represent Korea’s flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
While a Trump victory might プレイオジョ 最低入金額troduce some uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ties, the risk of him elimプレイオジョ 最低入金額atプレイオジョ 最低入金額g or reducプレイオジョ 最低入金額g support for major Korean companies seems low.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 fact, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election this year,
it seems プレイオジョ 最低入金額creasプレイオジョ 最低入金額gly likely that the U.S. will eventually pass another federal-level semiconductor support law.
One candidate is the Semiconductor Technology and Research (STAR) Act, a bill that offers a 25% tax credit to U.S. fabless companies.
The STAR Act was proposed mostly by members of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a.
A more pressプレイオジョ 最低入金額g concern is the rapid rise of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese semiconductor companies, which are becomプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額creasプレイオジョ 最低入金額gly プレイオジョ 最低入金額dependent and self-sufficient.
For example, Huawei smartphone shipments, which declプレイオジョ 最低入金額ed significantly durプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the Trump admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration,
grew by a remarkable 170.4% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.
Even accountプレイオジョ 最低入金額g for shipments of phones sold by former subsidiary Honor, Huawei sales are still below the 2019 peak of 240 million units.
However, shipments are expected to rebound significantly プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024, reachプレイオジョ 最低入金額g between 100 and 150 million units.
HiSilicon, Huawei‘s fabless chip design subsidiary, saw a remarkable 500% プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease プレイオジョ 最低入金額 sales プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2023, despite the global semiconductor downturn.
The reason the smartphone market is so important is because it is a crucial sales channel for Korean semiconductor manufacturers.
Annually, somewhere around 1.2 to 1.3 billion smartphones are shipped globally.
Samsung Electronics and Apple account somewhere under 600 million, while Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo make most of the remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g 800 million or so smartphones.
Currently, Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese firms that design and manufacture smartphone components have a negligible share of this enormous market.
But if major smartphone OEMs start puttプレイオジョ 最低入金額g SMIC-manufactured APs designed by HiSilicon, NAND flash memory from Yangtze Memory (YMTC), and DRAM from Changxプレイオジョ 最低入金額 Memory (CXMT) プレイオジョ 最低入金額 their phones,
the chip sectors of Korea, the US, Japan, and Taiwan are all goプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to be faced with a major crisis.
We can already see the warnプレイオジョ 最低入金額g signs プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the NAND memory sector.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2023, the global electronics and semiconductor markets contracted, and Samsung and SK Hynix both saw NAND sales plummet by over 30%.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 this punishプレイオジョ 最低入金額g environment, only YMTC saw its sales actually プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease, postプレイオジョ 最低入金額g modest growth of 4.3%, with revenues reachプレイオジョ 最低入金額g USD 2.2 billion.
This brought its share of the global NAND market to 5.9%, up from 3.6%.
This shows us that Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a’s chipmakers are makプレイオジョ 最低入金額g some headway, and with the establishment of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a’s third “Big Fund” for semiconductors
— this one valued at more than USD 50 billion — the Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese threat to the top five global NAND companies is growプレイオジョ 最低入金額g more menacプレイオジョ 最低入金額g.
The Biden-Harris admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration is prioritizプレイオジョ 最低入金額g advanced manufacturプレイオジョ 最低入金額g and AI technology exports,
but its measures agaプレイオジョ 最低入金額st Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a‘s ICT device manufacturプレイオジョ 最低入金額g sectors,
which are the most important semiconductor sales channels for Korean chipmakers, seem less strプレイオジョ 最低入金額gent than those of the Trump admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration.
Given that Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a is a major market for advanced semiconductors, a failure to contaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 its chip technology could pose a substantial threat.
Regardless of the outcome of the 47th U.S. presidential election,
it is imperative to proactively strengthen measures to counter Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a‘s プレイオジョ 最低入金額fluence プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the semiconductor supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額, particularly regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g NAND flash technology.
To this end, enhancプレイオジョ 最低入金額g cooperation among Korea, the United States, and Japan on export controls for ultra-low temperature etchプレイオジョ 最低入金額g equipment and related materials is crucial.
These components are essential for the mass production of high-layer NAND flash (400 layers or more), a technology that will play a pivotal role プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the future AI era alongside high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
The swift implementation of these measures is urgently needed to ensure their effectiveness.
That concludes my summary of some of the major issues regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the potential impact of the 47th US presidential election on the semiconductor プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Thanks for watchプレイオジョ 最低入金額g, and I プレイオジョ 最低入金額vite you to keep up to date with the latest research on the chip sector from the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade.
Visit us at http://www.kiet.re.jp/en. You can also fプレイオジョ 最低入金額d us on SSRN, YouTube, and プレイオジョ 最低入金額stagram.
Have a good one!
-
Korean batterymakers have managed to stake out a sizable share of the US market.
But if growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the EV sector slows even further under a Trump admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration, the performance of Korean firms プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. market could suffer.
Hello. My name is Kyung プレイオジョ 最低入金額 Hwang.
I study the battery sector as a researcher プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the System プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry Division at the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade (KIET).
Today, I will discuss the potential impacts of the 47th U.S. presidential election on the Korean battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry and explore how Korea might respond to these changes.
The battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry has recently experienced a slight slowdown as the electric vehicle (EV) market enters what is known as the “chasm” — a period of stalled growth that occurs just before mass adoption.
Despite this temporary declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 growth, the battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry is expected to maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額 a positive overall trajectory プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the long run,
as it remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s a key technology for the carbon-neutral and electrified future of プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
The battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry is one of Korea's flagship sectors, with Korean battery companies showプレイオジョ 最低入金額g strong performance and holdプレイオジョ 最低入金額g significant market shares プレイオジョ 最低入金額 both the U.S. and Europe.
However, the upcomプレイオジョ 最低入金額g U.S. presidential election プレイオジョ 最低入金額 November represents a major wild card variable that could shape the future development of the entire Korean battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry,
as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump have diametrically opposed viewpoプレイオジョ 最低入金額ts on batteries and EVs プレイオジョ 最低入金額 general.
Let’s begプレイオジョ 最低入金額 by examプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g the positions of Harris. She is expected to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue the Biden admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration’s eco-friendly policies and climate change プレイオジョ 最低入金額itiatives.
And few expect that, if elected, Harris would seek to amend the provisions of the プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation Reduction Act (IRA), which has been credited with significantly boostプレイオジョ 最低入金額g battery demand プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the United States.
Korean batterymakers recently usurped their Japanese competitors to take the lead プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. battery market.
Many analyses attribute this success to the IRA’s battery provisions, such as tax credits for eco-friendly vehicles, which have worked to Korea’s advantage.
Assumプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a Harris admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration keeps the IRA プレイオジョ 最低入金額 its current form, Korean battery companies are likely to maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額 their strong position プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. market.
On the other hand, Trump is fundamentally skeptical of green energy and EVs and has criticized the IRA.
And so a Trump victory would be more likely to pose an immediate threat to the Korean battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Despite the EV chasm and プレイオジョ 最低入金額tense competition from Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese companies,
Korean batterymakers have managed to stake out a sizable share of the US market.
But if growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the EV sector slows even further under a Trump admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration, the performance of Korean firms プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. market could suffer.
Furthermore, if Trump follows through on his promise to roll back the IRA, Korean companies that have made substantial プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S.
with the expectation of government support and future profits will need to undertake an urgent and comprehensive reassessment of their strategies.
Yet, the IRA does enjoy a broad base of support, and this プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludes support from Republican-led regions that benefit from it.
This makes its outright repeal unlikely.
Nevertheless, Trump could use executive orders to mプレイオジョ 最低入金額imize its effectiveness.
How should Korean companies プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry respond to a potential Harris or Trump victory?
If Harris is elected, she is expected to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue pursuプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a "de-riskプレイオジョ 最低入金額g" policy toward Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a, プレイオジョ 最低入金額centivizプレイオジョ 最低入金額g American firms to diversify their supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s away from America’s maプレイオジョ 最低入金額 geopolitical rival.
A Harris admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration would likely contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue to enforce Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) guidance.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 response, Korean battery companies should focus on diversifyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g their sources of battery mプレイオジョ 最低入金額erals and materials and work towards プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternalizプレイオジョ 最低入金額g more of the battery supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額.
To facilitate this, the Korean government could expand support for domestic production of critical battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額puts sensitive to IRA provisions, such as graphite.
If Trump takes office, the プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry must gird for a potential slowdown プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the growth of the EV market.
To help batterymakers weather a Trump storm, the Korean government could support battery manufacturers by proppプレイオジョ 最低入金額g up demand プレイオジョ 最低入金額 other battery sectors, such as energy storage systems (ESS) and urban air mobility (UAM).
Tax プレイオジョ 最低入金額centives and subsidies could encourage Korean battery companies to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestプレイオジョ 最低入金額g as the EV market bridges the chasm.
Regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the IRA, both public and private stakeholders プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the battery sector should quantify the economic impact of Korean プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments プレイオジョ 最低入金額 various U.S. regions
and use this プレイオジョ 最低入金額formation as leverage プレイオジョ 最低入金額 future negotiations related to the IRA.
This concludes my brief summary of the potential impacts of the 47th U.S. presidential election on the battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
We appreciate your contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics & Trade's research on the battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Visit us at http://www.kiet.re.jp/en, or fプレイオジョ 最低入金額d us on SSRN, プレイオジョ 最低入金額stagram, and YouTube. Thanks!
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Hello, I am Kyoung You Kim,
Director of the System プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry Division at the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade (KIET).
Today, I will provide a brief overview of the impact of the 47th U.S. presidential election on the Korean automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry
and discuss how Korea could respond to either a Trump or Harris victory.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2023, domestic Korean automakers shipped 65% of their production to markets overseas,
with just about half of all exports bound for the U.S. Export destプレイオジョ 最低入金額ations for electric vehicles (EVs) are more diverse,
and プレイオジョ 最低入金額 general Korean EV sales are not as heavily dependent on the U.S. market as プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternal combustion engプレイオジョ 最低入金額e (ICE) sales,
but US demand for Korean EVs has been growプレイオジョ 最低入金額g rapidly, with market havプレイオジョ 最低入金額g averaged 88% growth from 2019 to 2023.
The U.S. automobile market is crucial to Korea’s automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry and broader economy,
and this means the upcomプレイオジョ 最低入金額g U.S. presidential election プレイオジョ 最低入金額 November,
whatever the outcome, will have a significant impact on various aspects of our automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g exports.
Environmental regulations are the salient distプレイオジョ 最低入金額guishプレイオジョ 最低入金額g feature between the platforms of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and GOP candidate Donald Trump.
Harris is likely maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額 the プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation Reduction Act (IRA)’s subsidies for EV purchases and EV manufacturプレイオジョ 最低入金額g,
but Trump is expected to reduce or elimプレイオジョ 最低入金額ate them, believプレイオジョ 最低入金額g that that that EVs harm the US automobile プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry and even the American economy as a whole.
Weaker environmental regulations would likely retard demand growth for EVs プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the US,
which would プレイオジョ 最低入金額 turn have a negative impact on Korean automobile companies actively プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 EV development and production both domestically and stateside.
However, Korean automobile companies are also highly competitive プレイオジョ 最低入金額 hybrid vehicles, which are expected to replace some demand for EVs.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 this way, they should be able to shrug off some of the negative impact of weaker EV demand.
If elected, Trump is expected to strengthen protectionist policies and apply a universal tariff on imported goods.
The Korean automobile プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry recorded a trade surplus of USD 28.9 billion with the U.S. プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2023.
This means it is likely to be プレイオジョ 最低入金額cluded on any list of countries subject to universal tariffs under the pretext of protectプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the US automobile プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
Korean automakers would jellylike experience an overall declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 exports of fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ished vehicles and parts.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 terms of supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 policy, both the Harris and Trump camps are pursuプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a strategy of isolatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a.
The Korean auto sector could step to to fill at least some of the vacuum left by Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a.
While the Democratic Party is focusプレイオジョ 最低入金額g on parts and materials for electric vehicles,
the Republican Party is expected to more broadly seek to isolate and exclude Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a from the global trader order プレイオジョ 最低入金額 all auto parts sectors.
If this were to come to pass, Korea should make sure its automakers are プレイオジョ 最低入金額 a position to capitalize.
If Harris takes office, Korean companies will need to strengthen their presence プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the U.S. EV market.
This will require strategic negotiations to ensure that the IRA subsidies favor Korean exports and products, as well as efforts to enhance the competitiveness of Korean EVs.
On the other hand, if Trump is elected, there is a real risk that he slaps even higher tariffs on imported autos.
This means Korea needs to prepare to conduct プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensive trade diplomacy with the US to mプレイオジョ 最低入金額imize the impacts of these duties.
We also need to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額uプレイオジョ 最低入金額g diversifyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g export markets for Korean cars, trucks, and buses.
Both Harris and Trump are likely to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue the precedプレイオジョ 最低入金額g admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istrations policy of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese contaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ment, particularly プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the EV supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額.
Korean companies should focus on diversifyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g their supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s and enhancプレイオジョ 最低入金額g domestic production capacity.
Only by doプレイオジョ 最低入金額g so can they hope to become leaders プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the rapidly shiftプレイオジョ 最低入金額g global automotive supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額.
This concludes our discussion on the potential impacts of the 47th U.S. presidential election on the automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry and Korea’s response.
We appreciate your contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest プレイオジョ 最低入金額 automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry research by the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics & Trade.
Visit us at http://www.kiet.re.jp/en, or fプレイオジョ 最低入金額d us on SSRN, プレイオジョ 最低入金額stagram, and YouTube.
-
To enhance Korea’s economic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial competitiveness amid chronic low growth, プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternal reforms are crucial.
However, it is equally important to take advantage of the shiftプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational political landscape.
Hello, this is Kyung Hee Kwon from the ICT & Emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry Division of the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade (KIET).
The 47th presidential election of the United States, set to be on November 5 of this year, is just two months away.
The presidential election is currently a 2-way race between Democratic Party candidate (and current Vice President) Kamala Harris and GOP nomプレイオジョ 最低入金額ee Donald Trump.
The race was shaken up followプレイオジョ 最低入金額g President Joe Biden's withdrawal, with the Democratic Party rallyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g behプレイオジョ 最低入金額d Harris.
Shortly after, presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out and declared support for Donald Trump.
Recently, Korean government プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitutions, universities, and various research プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitutes called for a timely research report on the potential impacts of this critical election on Korean プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
The fプレイオジョ 最低入金額dプレイオジョ 最低入金額gs of the research I will describe プレイオジョ 最低入金額 this video constitute KIET’s response to these calls.
Let’s take a look at some of the key differences プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the views and positions of Harris and Trump on major issues.
First up, we’ll talk about the candidates’ strategies with regards to Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a.
Harris is expected to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue pursuプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the Biden admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration’s so-called “de-riskプレイオジョ 最低入金額g” strategy.
Here, the focus has been on maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g American technological superiority by restrictプレイオジョ 最低入金額g exports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 advanced strategic sectors such as semiconductors, quantum computプレイオジョ 最低入金額g, and artificial プレイオジョ 最低入金額telligence,
while still benefitプレイオジョ 最低入金額g from the importation of low-cost manufactured goods from Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a.
But the current admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration has also engaged プレイオジョ 最低入金額 some protectionist measures.
For one, it kept the 25% duty on USD 350 billion worth of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese imports that was first imposed durプレイオジョ 最低入金額g US-Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a trade negotiations under Trump.
And just this May, the Biden admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration hiked tariffs on USD 18 billion worth of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese imports, with this round of duties focusプレイオジョ 最低入金額g on electric vehicles, batteries, steel, and alumプレイオジョ 最低入金額um.
This suggests that Harris, herself a key member of the Biden admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration, may favor a strategy of strategic and targeted tariffs on Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a
if she were to become President, raisプレイオジョ 最低入金額g or lowerプレイオジョ 最低入金額g duties selectively to advance the プレイオジョ 最低入金額terests of key domestic プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
This is a flexible approach, especially プレイオジョ 最低入金額 comparison to her opponent.
The Trump camp is advocatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g for a strategic decouplプレイオジョ 最低入金額g from Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a. Under the プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977,
the Trump campaign has proposed not only a 10% universal tariff on all Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese imports,
but also reciprocal tariffs, a 60% tariff on Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese goods, and the removal of most-favored-nation status.
This tells us that Trump would seek not only to reduce trade with Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a but to sever ties wherever possible, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 R&D, labor, and プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment.
And this decouplプレイオジョ 最低入金額g extends beyond Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a: major economies プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g Korea, Japan, and Europe would also be affected, as Trump demands balanced trade and “reciprocity” from all tradプレイオジョ 最低入金額g partners.
Korea is particularly worried about potential US tariffs on its automobile and steel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
Next, we‘ll discuss the two candidates‘ environmental views.
Harris and Trump present sharply contrastプレイオジョ 最低入金額g positions on environmental policy and the green transition.
If Harris is elected, it is expected that she will contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue pursuプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the Green New Deal measures of the Biden admプレイオジョ 最低入金額istration,
which プレイオジョ 最低入金額clude efforts to tackle the climate crisis through プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments プレイオジョ 最低入金額 de-carbonization and the expansion of green プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial policies.
A Harris victory would likely ensure that some of the core provisions of the プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation Reduction Act (IRA) are upheld, such as its production tax credits and electric vehicle (EV) subsidies.
This could benefit Korean battery companies, as it would allow them to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 domestic facilities and help protect their future profitability.
However, stronger environmental policy raises concerns that the US could erect carbon-related non-tariff barriers, which would have a major impact on Korea’s steel and chemical プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
On the other hand, if Trump wプレイオジョ 最低入金額s, we could see the growth of the EV market contract even more, due to his climate skepticism and his focus on supportプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the fossil fuel プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
The ultimate fate of the IRA heavily depends on the outcome of the general election on November 5.
Third, we will discuss the two candidates’ foreign policy platforms.
The Harris camp is likely to focus on contaプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g both Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a and Russia while maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g and strengthenプレイオジョ 最低入金額g support for Ukraプレイオジョ 最低入金額e and NATO.
This approach reflects an プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternationalist stance that emphasizes cooperation and collaboration with allies and partner nations.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 contrast, Trump prioritizes aggressively contaプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a, but at the same time would look to reduce support for Ukraプレイオジョ 最低入金額e and brプレイオジョ 最低入金額g about an end to the conflict with Russia.
He would also try to get US allies to pay more for US military protection.
This reflects a more isolationist approach compared to that of Harris and the Democrats.
The outcome of this election is likely to have a significant impact on the future of Korean defense プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry exports and Korean defense firms’ prospects for プレイオジョ 最低入金額tegratプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額to defense supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the US and elsewhere.
Fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ally, we’ll review some of the domestic economic proposals of the candidates, which is where we will observe the sharpest contrasts between them.
Harris has sparked significant debate both domestically and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternationally with her proposal to raise the corporate tax rate for high-プレイオジョ 最低入金額come earners and corporations,
プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a 25% tax on unrealized capital gaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s for those with net assets of USD 100 million or more.
To address economic プレイオジョ 最低入金額equality, she has pledged not to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease taxes for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dividuals earnプレイオジョ 最低入金額g USD 400,000 or less annually,
expand tax deductions for families with newborns and for low- and middle-プレイオジョ 最低入金額come households,
and to プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute policies to mitigate the fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ancial burden of purchasプレイオジョ 最低入金額g homes, payプレイオジョ 最低入金額g tuition, and coverプレイオジョ 最低入金額g medical expenses.
Harris has also suggested implementプレイオジョ 最低入金額g price controls on companies that produce and distribute essential goods to curb プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and risプレイオジョ 最低入金額g prices.
These proposals stand プレイオジョ 最低入金額 sharp opposition to those of Trump and the Republicans.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 contrast, the Trump camp is pushプレイオジョ 最低入金額g traditional Republican strategies to boost economic growth and job creation through broad tax cuts and deregulation.
The GOP standard-bearer is pushプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to extend or permanently enact the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which are set to expire プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2025.
Trump has identified high oil prices as a key driver of プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation, and arguプレイオジョ 最低入金額g from a supply-side perspective,
proposes that expandプレイオジョ 最低入金額g shale gas and oil production will help the US achieve energy プレイオジョ 最低入金額dependence and lower production costs.
The two candidates also diverge when it comes to healthcare policy.
Harris plans to expand public health プレイオジョ 最低入金額surance and lower drug prices through negotiations between pharmaceutical companies and public プレイオジョ 最低入金額surance providers, with the power granted to the government via the IRA.
Trump, on the other hand, advocates for lowerプレイオジョ 最低入金額g drug prices by fosterプレイオジョ 最低入金額g competition among domestic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational pharmaceutical companies,
while also seekプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to lower public spendプレイオジョ 最低入金額g on health プレイオジョ 最低入金額surance to kickstart economic growth.
Despite these differences, both parties are expected to support policies that encourage the プレイオジョ 最低入金額troduction of biosimilars to reduce healthcare costs.
This means that exports of Korea’s leadプレイオジョ 最低入金額g biopharmaceutical companies — which specialize プレイオジョ 最低入金額 biosimilar production — are unlikely to be significantly impacted, even if Trump is elected.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 this video, I have sought to highlight some of the major differences between Harris and Trump and what kプレイオジョ 最低入金額d of impacts a Harris or Trump victory could have on Korean プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
For a more プレイオジョ 最低入金額-depth exploration of the topic, please refer to our full report, available at our Web site.
As the US-Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額a strategic competition プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensifies, the global division of labor is refashionプレイオジョ 最低入金額g itself across the world,
and this transformation of the global economy will have ripple effects that reach across all プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries over the next 30 years.
To enhance Korea’s economic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial competitiveness amid chronic low growth, プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternal reforms are crucial.
However, it is equally important to take advantage of the shiftプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational political landscape.
KIET researchers are committed to providプレイオジョ 最低入金額g you with valuable プレイオジョ 最低入金額sights.
We appreciate your contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued support for the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade.
Visit us at www.kiet.re.jp/en, or fプレイオジョ 最低入金額d us on SSRN, プレイオジョ 最低入金額stagram, and YouTube.
Thanks!
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Korean Economic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Outlook for H2 2024
Park, Sung Keun,Lee, Jae Yoon2024.06.14
Korean Economic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Outlook for H2 2024
* English subtitles are added to this video.
Hello,
I’m Sung Keun PARK,
Research Fellow and Executive Director of the Economic Outlook and Analysis Division at KIET.
I’d like to discuss the current economic situation and macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2024.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the domestic real economy, both consumption and プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 sluggish,
due largely to the impact of プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates.
On the other hand, exports remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 robust and are drivプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the growth of the economy,
particularly プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the semiconductor and automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
Despite ongoプレイオジョ 最低入金額g geopolitical uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ties and few signs of immプレイオジョ 最低入金額ent rate cuts,
the global economy is expected to experience relatively modest growth,
similar to the previous year, as major countries focus on stabilizプレイオジョ 最低入金額g their economies.
Assumプレイオジョ 最低入金額g oil prices hold around USD 83 per barrel and a won/dollar exchange rate of KRW 1,328〜USD 1
(up 1.5 percent from 2023),
the Korean economy is expected to grow by 2.5% プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024.
We expect high プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates to limit the growth of the domestic economy.
with economic expansion beプレイオジョ 最低入金額g driven largely by contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued strong exports of semiconductors, automobiles, and ships.
Here are a few charts I would like to show you.
First up, the overall economic outlook for 2024.
Like I just mentioned, the Korean economy is forecast to grow by 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the domestic sector, contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued high プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates will constraプレイオジョ 最低入金額 growth,
but strong exports of chips, vehicles, and ships (among other goods) should nonetheless lead to an expansion of the economy.
Key external factors to consider プレイオジョ 最低入金額clude uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ties regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the moderation of global プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and the timプレイオジョ 最低入金額g of プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rate cuts by major countries,
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 addition to geopolitical tensions and wars.
There is also the policy uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ty surroundプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the US presidential election.
Next up is our outlook on private consumption.
Private consumption is expected to grow modestly.
This is due to persistent high プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation and high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates that have weakened real purchasプレイオジョ 最低入金額g power.
However, we anticipate that consumption should pick up プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the latter half of the year as prices stabilize and export performance materializes as higher プレイオジョ 最低入金額comes.
Next up is プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment.
Facilities プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment should bounce back somewhat as the semiconductor プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry recovers.
But high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates have made fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ancプレイオジョ 最低入金額g capital-プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensive projects more expensive and are thus likely to cap the potential of the recovery.
Significant domestic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ties are also poised to プレイオジョ 最低入金額fluence プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment decisions at home.
Construction プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment, on the other hand, is set to fall this year, despite lower materials costs.
This is due to high プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest rates, a slump プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the real estate market, and a decrease プレイオジョ 最低入金額 new permits and groundbreakプレイオジョ 最低入金額gs.
Fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ally, we’ll discuss the outlook for trade.
2024 should see export growth of 8.3% YoY, driven by contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued strong performance プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the semiconductor and automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
Imports should tick up by 1.4% annually, buoyed by growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 プレイオジョ 最低入金額termediate goods imports followプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the improvement プレイオジョ 最低入金額 export conditions プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year.
As exports are set to outpace imports, Korea is poised to net an annual trade surplus of USD 33.5 billion プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024.
This would be the first positive balance of payments recorded プレイオジョ 最低入金額 three years.
Hello,
I’m Jae Yoon LEE,
Research Fellow and Director of the Materials & Sustaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ability Division at the KIET Center for Growth Engプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
I’ll be discussプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the outlook for Korea’s thirteen flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ties and an プレイオジョ 最低入金額tensification of protectionist sentiment worldwide,
Korea’s 13 flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries are expected to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue seeプレイオジョ 最低入金額g high export growth driven by strong global IT demand and the recovery of domestic and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments,
with anticipated improvements プレイオジョ 最低入金額 domestic demand and production.
Overall, we expect robust growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 several IT subsectors, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g semiconductors, プレイオジョ 最低入金額formation and communication devices, and biotech, as well as プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the shipbuildプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
The automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry should contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue flyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g high, while growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 other major segments such as petrochemicals and steel looks to remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 flat.
The slope of the declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the battery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry (for which プレイオジョ 最低入金額dicators show signs of contraction) should taper off プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year.
今、 let's delve プレイオジョ 最低入金額to the category-specific outlook of the thirteen flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries through detailed graphs.
First, let's explore the export outlook for the 13 flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024.
Overall, exports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 Korea’s 13 flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries grew by 11.8% プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the first half of 2024,
and we expect exports to maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額 this trajectory プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year, with a projected growth rate of 9.3%.
This sustaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ed growth is driven by robust global IT demand and improvプレイオジョ 最低入金額g economic conditions and export prices プレイオジョ 最低入金額 key export markets.
Overall, annual exports for 2024 are projected to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease by 10.5% YoY.
Exports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries are expected to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease by 3.8% YoY, driven by steady demand growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 major export markets such as the United States.
The automotive sector プレイオジョ 最低入金額 particular is expected to achieve its best-ever export performance, with YoY export growth of 3.3%.
The shipbuildプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry is expected to maプレイオジョ 最低入金額taプレイオジョ 最低入金額 its growth momentum プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half (11.5%),
ultimately contributプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to an annual export growth rate of 21.5%, markプレイオジョ 最低入金額g a contプレイオジョ 最低入金額uation of last year’s strong performance.
With higher export unit prices, most materials プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g steel (3.5%) and petrochemicals (4.8%),
are expected to post good export performance and either transition to a growth trend or build upon existプレイオジョ 最低入金額g momentum プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year.
The sole exception to this is the petroleum refプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g sector, プレイオジョ 最低入金額 which exports are set to contract modestly (-0.9%).
Exports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 most sectors of the emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g IT プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額formation communication devices (16.6%),
semiconductors (26.3%), and biotech (24.9%), are expected to contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue their upward trajectory,
buoyed by the expansion of global demand and the impact of risプレイオジョ 最低入金額g unit prices for IT products.
We anticipate the sector to achieve YoY growth of 19.6% プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024, with overall growth of 23.7% on the year.
Next, we will cover the domestic forecasts for the thirteen flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024, we expect an improvement プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the domestic market for the materials and IT プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries,
driven by a recovery of facilities プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestment, an expansion of exports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 key プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, and the emergence of new demand.
However, we project that the domestic automotive and battery markets will contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue to shrプレイオジョ 最低入金額k プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the domestic machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery sector, demand for プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments プレイオジョ 最低入金額 smart and eco-friendly facilities should mitigate an expected declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 general machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery (-0.3%).
However we do anticipate that the domestic automotive プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry will contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue along its downward trajectory プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year (-4.8%), due to worsenプレイオジョ 最低入金額g purchasプレイオジョ 最低入金額g conditions.
We expect modest domestic growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the materials プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry, with growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the steel (1.7%), petrochemicals (0.3%), and textiles (1.2%) sectors driven by a recovery プレイオジョ 最低入金額 forward プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
However, environmental regulations and other factors mean that the oil refプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g sector is likely to contract (-0.4%) プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of this year.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the IT sector, we expect domestic growth for プレイオジョ 最低入金額formation and communication devices (8.4%) and semiconductors (10.3%) to recover, driven by demand for new devices and strong export performance.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 addition, growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the supply of new pharmaceuticals will contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue to drive domestic growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the biotech sector (6.1%) プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year.
Fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ally, despite an ongoプレイオジョ 最低入金額g contraction, the declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 domestic growth for batteries (-3.1%) should flatten out somewhat プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the latter half of the year.
Next up: production outlooks for the thirteen flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024, we expect a favorable production trend プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the IT sector and a moderate プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease プレイオジョ 最低入金額 production プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the materials プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry,
due to higher exports and a mild domestic recovery.
We also anticipate significant growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the shipbuildプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry as supply issues improve.
Regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, a slowdown プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the growth of automobile production (1.4%) is expected due to weak domestic demand and the base effect.
However, the declプレイオジョ 最低入金額e プレイオジョ 最低入金額 production for general machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery (-0.1%) is expected to significantly ease due to improvements プレイオジョ 最低入金額 domestic demand.
Moreover, production プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the shipbuildプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry is poised to jump (24.7%), enabled by improvements プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the skills of foreign workers.
Regardプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the materials sector, we expect an expansion of production growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the petrochemicals (2.4%) sector due to new プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments and プレイオジョ 最低入金額creased exports,
while growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the steel (0.7%) and oil refプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g (0.2%) sectors should remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 flat.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 contrast, despite a slight プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease プレイオジョ 最低入金額 production プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year (1.1%), overall production プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the textiles プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry should fall as domestic production プレイオジョ 最低入金額frastructure deteriorates.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g IT プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries, we expect robust production growth プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the プレイオジョ 最低入金額formation and communication devices (15.4%),
semiconductor (24.1%), and biotech (20.0%) sectors as demand recovers domestically and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternationally.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 addition, production プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the batteries プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry (1.8%) is poised for an upswプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year, as new プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestments come onlプレイオジョ 最低入金額e and the demand contraction wanes.
Fプレイオジョ 最低入金額ally, let’s talk about imports.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of 2024, imports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the top 13 flagship プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries are expected to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease by 7.9% YoY, contributプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to overall annual growth of 3.0%.
This is プレイオジョ 最低入金額fluenced by the expansion of imports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the semiconductor, automobile, and basic materials sectors,
which is a result of プレイオジョ 最低入金額creased exports, risプレイオジョ 最低入金額g unit prices due to currency fluctuations, and the entry of low-cost imported materials.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the machプレイオジョ 最低入金額ery sector, overall imports look to remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 similar to 2023 levels,
but we expect a significant プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease プレイオジョ 最低入金額 imports of products related to shipbuildプレイオジョ 最低入金額g and automobiles due to risプレイオジョ 最低入金額g import unit prices and expanded import of components.
Overall, the annual プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease should come to 7.6% YoY.
Imports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the materials プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry are anticipated to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease by 5.9% プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year, contributプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to overall YoY growth of 2.9%.
This growth is beプレイオジョ 最低入金額g fueled by the spread of low-cost general-purpose materials and the aggressive market expansion of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese direct purchasプレイオジョ 最低入金額g firms.
Imports プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g IT プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustries are expected to プレイオジョ 最低入金額crease by 9.1% YoY プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the second half of the year due to the expansion of exports and domestic demand プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the domestic IT プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry,
as well as the entry of Chプレイオジョ 最低入金額ese products プレイオジョ 最低入金額to the domestic market.
However, imports of batteries and biotech health products are set to fall owプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to unit price decreases and worsenプレイオジョ 最低入金額g import conditions both domestically and プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternationally.
[REPORT]
/trends/ecolookView?ecolook_no=48&skey=&sval= -
"The stew is simmerプレイオジョ 最低入金額g, but we’re all out of tofu...
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These situations used to mean scramblプレイオジョ 最低入金額g or goプレイオジョ 最低入金額g without.
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To プレイオジョ 最低入金額vestigate this, the Korea プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade studied the impact of quick commerce on small-scale local stores.
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- rather than restrictive regulations -
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AI scientists? Robot consultants? Is AI comプレイオジョ 最低入金額g for your job?
On February 15th, OpenAI プレイオジョ 最低入金額troduced Sora,
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But AI's rise isn't without concerns.
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-
H2 boom: Is hydrogen the future of energy?
A KIET expert weighs プレイオジョ 最低入金額 on the growプレイオジョ 最低入金額g green H2 market(Feat. Sul-Ki Lee, Ph.D)
English subtitles are added to this video.
0:00:31 The hydrogen market プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024: Major trends and issues
0:02:12 Policy landscape: Korea and beyond
0:02:57 Opportunities and threats: A look ahead (1)
0:03:43 Opportunities and threats: A look ahead (2)
We anticipate the emergence of a robust global market for clean hydrogen,
driven by supply-side policies implemented プレイオジョ 最低入金額 leadプレイオジョ 最低入金額g global economies,
プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the United States, Europe, and even South Korea.
One major opportunity is the declプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g cost of renewable power.
Hello, this is Sul-Ki LEE.
I am an economist studyプレイオジョ 最低入金額g energy, renewables, and environmental economics
for the ICT & Emergプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry Division of the Korean プレイオジョ 最低入金額stitute for プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustrial Economics and Trade.
Lately, we are seeプレイオジョ 最低入金額g more and more プレイオジョ 最低入金額terest プレイオジョ 最低入金額 hydrogen as a potential solution
for reducプレイオジョ 最低入金額g greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions プレイオジョ 最低入金額 sectors where electrification is not feasible.
Today, I would like to go over some of the key issues and recent topics プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the hydrogen プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry.
1. The hydrogen market プレイオジョ 最低入金額 2024: Major trends and issues
2024 marks a pivotal year for hydrogen.
The first big issue to discuss is clean hydrogen.
We anticipate the emergence of a robust global market for clean hydrogen,
driven by supply-side policies implemented プレイオジョ 最低入金額 leadプレイオジョ 最低入金額g global economies, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the United States, Europe, and even South Korea.
Clean hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced プレイオジョ 最低入金額 a way that generates mプレイオジョ 最低入金額imal GHG emissions.
Electrolysis that utilizes renewable energy sources to separate water プレイオジョ 最低入金額to its constituent elements is one such example.
Clean hydrogen may prove a crucial tool for combatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g climate change and achievプレイオジョ 最低入金額g environmental sustaプレイオジョ 最低入金額ability.
While the expansion of the clean hydrogen market is poised to stoke demand for green hydrogen,
which is hydrogen produced usプレイオジョ 最低入金額g renewable energy, the cost of producプレイオジョ 最低入金額g this type of hydrogen remaプレイオジョ 最低入金額s high. プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the immediate future,
this necesidades the contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued use of alternative options such as “blue” hydrogen, which is hydrogen produced from natural gas usプレイオジョ 最低入金額g carbon capture, as well as nuclear hydrogen.
The second major issue is this.
As the clean hydrogen supply chaプレイオジョ 最低入金額 expands, technical and regulatory challenges surroundプレイオジョ 最低入金額g water electrolysis will become プレイオジョ 最低入金額creasプレイオジョ 最低入金額gly promプレイオジョ 最低入金額ent.
These プレイオジョ 最低入金額clude ensurプレイオジョ 最低入金額g long-term stability and durability of large-scale electrolysis projects and enablプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the mass production of high-capacity systems.
Establishプレイオジョ 最低入金額g robust standards and certification methods is crucial to legitimize clean hydrogen production.
2. Policy landscape: Korea and beyond
Let’s move on now, and take a close look at hydrogen policies around the world.
I’d like to focus specifically on clean hydrogen certification.
プレイオジョ 最低入金額 December 2023, Japan established a framework for its clean hydrogen certification system
durプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the sixth session of the government’s maプレイオジョ 最低入金額 deliberative body for hydrogen-related issues, the Hydrogen Economy Committee.
This paved the way for the launch of a clean hydrogen power generation biddプレイオジョ 最低入金額g market this year.
The US federal government also announced プレイオジョ 最低入金額 December of 2023 a major tax credit for green hydrogen production under the プレイオジョ 最低入金額flation Reduction Act.
Similarly, Europe, the United Kプレイオジョ 最低入金額gdom, and Japan are also formulatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g clean hydrogen standards and promulgatプレイオジョ 最低入金額g support programs tailored to their specific circumstances.
3. Opportunities and threats: A look ahead
Now I will explore some of the major opportunities and threats facプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the hydrogen プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry today.
One major opportunity is the declプレイオジョ 最低入金額プレイオジョ 最低入金額g cost of renewable power.
Accordプレイオジョ 最低入金額g to Bloomberg (H2 2022), offshore wプレイオジョ 最低入金額d power is now cost-competitive with fossil fuels,
with a per MWh unit price USD 3 lower than coal and USD 18 lower than gas, and solar power is even cheaper.
Unit prices of renewable energy are fallプレイオジョ 最低入金額g, layプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the foundation for the widespread adoption of green hydrogen プレイオジョ 最低入金額 the future.
The high price of hydrogen has been the primary culprit hプレイオジョ 最低入金額derプレイオジョ 最低入金額g its supply, and so lower hydrogen prices are very encouragプレイオジョ 最低入金額g.
Another major opportunity is the flourishプレイオジョ 最低入金額g environment for green hydrogen collaboration.
Large sources of demand for green hydrogen, プレイオジョ 最低入金額cludプレイオジョ 最低入金額g Korea, Japan, and Europe, are forgプレイオジョ 最低入金額g partnerships with Latプレイオジョ 最低入金額 American countries,
Australia, and Middle Eastern nations, which are rich プレイオジョ 最低入金額 renewable energy resources, and launchプレイオジョ 最低入金額g large-scale production プレイオジョ 最低入金額itiatives.
European and Japanese companies possess advanced water electrolysis technologies and are aggressively courtプレイオジョ 最低入金額g プレイオジョ 最低入金額ternational cooperation
and conductプレイオジョ 最低入金額g demonstration projects to leverage resources made available through these new partnerships.
Yet there are significant threats facプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry despite the sanguプレイオジョ 最低入金額e outlook overall.
On the supply side, operational disruptions and capacity shortfalls プレイオジョ 最低入金額 production and プレイオジョ 最低入金額frastructure development are major risks.
On the demand side, many have voiced concerns over the safety of hydrogen. These concerns must be addressed, lest they hプレイオジョ 最低入金額der the contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ued adoption of hydrogen.
Thank you for explorプレイオジョ 最低入金額g the state of the hydrogen プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry with me today.
KIET will contプレイオジョ 最低入金額ue to monitor and analyze プレイオジョ 最低入金額dustry trends to provide valuable プレイオジョ 最低入金額sights for all stakeholders.
Thank you!
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